Skip to main content
Causeway
Track map/Lab
Live regime →
Lab●One regime, several widgets

Drive every widget from one regime.

Pick a scenario above, then move the four axes inside the composer. The leverage stress-tester and rate-transmission map below read from the same regime — the rate-stress baseline and the policy Δ both move with you. Your scenario persists across reloads, and you can pin named regimes or share them as URLs.

Scenario · pick a regime
Disinflating, post-restrictive, labor still firm, credit easing — three of four axes confirm a soft-landing read.
Regime composer · dial the four axesTry the controls
Disinflating, post-restrictive, labor still firm, credit easing — three of four axes confirm a soft-landing read.
2.5%
−2312
4.0%
0 (ZIRP)3 (neutral)12
4.1%
25 (long-run avg)12
-3.0%
easingneutraltightening
Regime headline
disinflating · post-restrictive · labor firm · credit easing
4 / 4axes confirming the dominant theme
High-confidence regime read. Three or more axes confirm a single theme.
Inflation (CPI YoY): 2.5%neutralAbove target, trending down. Disinflating.
Money (Fed funds): 4.0%tightAbove neutral. Restrictive policy.
Labor (U-3 unemployment): 4.1%tightBelow long-run average. Labor still firm.
Credit (SLOOS net % tightening): -3.0%looseBanks net-easing standards. Credit cycle expansionary.
What this is ▸The regime tally is not a forecast. It's a count of how many orthogonal axes agree on the same theme. Three of four is decisive; two of four is the turning point.

Reader · leverage stress

The regime's fed-funds level vs neutral becomes the baseline rate stress. The slider adds to that baseline.

Leverage stress-tester · does this position survive?Try the controls
The textbook well-structured case. Fixed rate + long term + asset you'd own anyway. Survives almost any rate scenario without changing the monthly payment.
Position
USD
USD
6.5%
360 mo
USD
Stress scenario
+50 bp
−0%
−0%
well structured

Survives the stress with margin. Payment stays affordable, equity stays positive. The fixed-rate term + manageable LTV is doing its job — this is what well-structured leverage looks like.

Metric
Base
Under stress
Monthly payment
$2,528
$2,528
LTV
80.0%
80.0%
Payment / income
31.6%
31.6%
Equity under stress
$100k
$100k
What to do ▸Well-structured leverage survives the stress with margin. If your position only works in the base case, you don't have leverage — you have a bet that the regime will hold.

Reader · rate transmission

The policy Δ is the regime's fed-funds level minus neutral. Drag the slider to push the regime through the eight downstream channels.

Rate transmission · move a policy change through the economy
Policy change Δ
+50 bp
−300 (deep cut)0+300 (deep hike)
Months since
6 / 24
day-of1y2y
Reading right now
Financial conditions have eased into the real economy. Credit and FX repriced; equities ahead of fundamentals.
ChannelPeak lagPath · 0 → 24moNow (t=6)Δ vs base
Short rates (3mo T-bill)
0 mo
4.85%
+0.45%
10-yr Treasury
1 mo
4.40%
+0.20%
30-yr mortgage
2 mo
7.04%
+0.24%
HY credit spreads
3 mo
272bp
-48bp
S&P 500 (idx, 100 = now)
6 mo
99.4
-0.6
USD index (DXY)
4 mo
105.2
+1.2
Unemployment
14 mo
4.10%
—
Core CPI YoY
18 mo
2.60%
—

Assets & crypto

The two widgets below couple to the regime's inflation and unemployment axes. Regime-assets snaps to one of four canonical quadrants; crypto-sizer shifts its return assumptions to reflect the implied debasement and cost-of-capital picture.

Reader · regime × assets

Inflation above 3.3% picks the inflationary quadrants; unemployment below 5% picks the boom quadrants. The ranking inside the panel comes from long-sample real returns.

Regime × assets · pick a quadrant, see which assets dominate
Regime auto-selectedFrom lab inputs · inflation 2.5% (threshold 3.3%) · unemployment 4.1% (threshold 5%).
The Goldilocks regime. Stocks dominate; bonds carry. Cash earns little; commodities lag. The 60/40 portfolio's natural habitat.
1Stocks (S&P 500)+14% / yr
2Long Treasuries (20y+)+6% / yr
3TIPS (inflation-linked)+2% / yr
4Cash / T-bills+1% / yr
5Gold-2% / yr
6Broad commodities-3% / yr
Implied 60/40 (stocks/long bonds) real return in this regime+10.8% / yr
What this is ▸Long-sample post-1970 averages, US-listed assets, real returns. Single years deviate widely. The point of the table is the ranking — which assets dominate in which regime — not the precision of the numbers.

Reader · crypto sizer

Each 1pp inflation above target lifts the reserve-asset return assumption by 2pct (debasement hedge). Each 1pp fed-funds above neutral cuts the tail-risk return by 3pct (cost-of-capital drag).

Crypto sizer · survive both readingsTry the controls
Regime adjustmentInflation 2.5% vs target 2% → reserve return +1pctpct · Fed funds 4.0% vs neutral 3.5% → tail return -1pctpct
Position
USD
2.0%
−80%
Tail-risk reading
-21%
90%
Reserve-asset reading
+26%
70%
balanced

Survives the tail-risk reading (drawdown of 1.6% of portfolio is recoverable) and is visible enough under the reserve-asset reading to matter. The position works under both honest readings.

Metric
Tail-risk
Reserve
Expected $ from crypto (1y)
−$420
$520
Portfolio return (1y)
6.4%
7.4%
Crypto's share of portfolio vol
15%
12%
Drawdown if BTC −80%
−1.6% of port
−1.6% of port
What to do ▸Size for the wrong reading, not the right one. If the position breaks the portfolio under the tail-risk reading, you've sized for a reserve-asset bet you can't afford to lose.

More widgets will join the lab over time. These five are the ones whose mechanics depend most directly on the regime — others (saving, housing, currency) need a richer scenario than four axes.