Right now you are in a disinflating · post-restrictive · labor still firm · credit neutral regime.
A single screen telling you the macro environment across orthogonal axes — and what it implies for the decisions you actually make. All four axes are wired live; the read updates with each new FRED release.
Above target, trending down. Disinflating.
Above neutral. Restrictive but easing.
Below long-run average. Labor still firm.
Standards near neutral. No clear credit signal either way.
What this regime implies for your decisions
All of Track H →These are directional defaults, not advice. They flip when the regime flips. The point is to know which way the wind is blowing before you decide.
Cash still earns; lock some in.
Short-duration Treasuries pay real yield for the first time in a generation. Laddering preserves it without committing to a bottom.
Don't chase the rate; watch the spread.
Mortgage rates lag policy. The 10y–30y mortgage spread is the leading indicator, not the headline number.
Stagger duration; don't pile in.
Extending duration into a cuts cycle is canonical; doing it all at once is the canonical mistake.
How the read is calculated
Causeway scores each axis against simple thresholds calibrated to the post-1990 sample: Fed target for inflation, neutral rate for monetary stance, long-run average for labor. The composite is the count of axes confirming a single thematic read — we report it transparently rather than blending into a single number that hides disagreement.
When axes disagree — common at turning points — the dashboard says so. The point is not to pretend the future is knowable; it's to make today's read legible.
All series via the public FRED API. Snapshot fallbacks are used when the upstream is unavailable and labelled inline.