Saving in this regime

Different savings vehicles win in different macro regimes — and there is no asset that always wins. Stocks dominate in disinflationary booms. Long bonds dominate in disinflationary recessions. Gold and commodities dominate in inflationary booms and stagflation. Cash never dominates; it just survives.

Because the last forty years taught a generation that stocks-and-bonds is the universal answer. It is the answer in the regime that defined those forty years — disinflation from 1980 onwards — but it is the wronganswer in stagflation or persistent inflation. Reading the regime (H1) is upstream of every savings decision; H2 is what to do once you've read it.