Leverage in your life
Eight nodes — the point of the rest. Read the regime; decide on housing, savings, career, big purchases, currency, debt, portfolio.
Why this track existsTracks A–G are scaffolding. Track H is the building. Every node here is a real decision macro can either help or hurt — never settle.
The 9-node arc
§ Nodes · in order- H1★
Reading the regime
Four orthogonal axes — inflation, money, labor, credit — combine into a regime read. Three of four agreeing is high-confidence; two is a turning point. The dashboard updates daily.
● ready11 min - H2★
Saving in this regime
There is no asset that always wins. Stocks dominate in disinflationary booms; long bonds in disinflationary downturns; gold and commodities in stagflation. Cash never dominates; it survives. The 2022 lesson: 60/40 fails when both halves are wrong for the regime at once.
● ready11 min - H3★
Housing as a financial decision
Your fixed-rate mortgage is itself an asset. Selling to chase a lower rate elsewhere usually destroys more value than it creates. Refinance windows reopen on a 3–5y cadence.
● ready13 min - H4
Career, by sector cyclicality
Knowledge work, finance, autos, construction, healthcare, public sector — each runs on its own clock. Negotiating leverage is highest just before your sector's hiring cycle turns.
● ready9 min - H5
Big-ticket purchases & their financing
List price moves slowly; dealer incentives and financing rates move fast. Watch the second pair, not the first.
● ready9 min - H6
Currency exposure you didn't know you had
Foreign trips, foreign assets, foreign-denominated income. Hedging is cheap when the dollar is strong; expensive when it's weak. Most people do it backwards.
● ready9 min - H7
Debt, used well
Borrowing against an appreciating asset at a fixed real rate is one of the most powerful tools available to a normal household — and the most overused, on the wrong assets.
● ready10 min - H8
Portfolio under regime change
Duration is your single biggest portfolio dial. Extending duration into a cuts cycle is the canonical late-cycle move; doing it too early is the canonical mistake. Stagger.
● ready10 min - H9
Crypto in a real portfolio
Two honest readings of bitcoin coexist: a tail-risk asset (no cashflow, regulation-killable, 80%-drawdown-prone) and a reserve-asset candidate (fixed supply, network effects, dollar-debasement hedge). Sizing differs by an order of magnitude. The right allocation depends on which reading you believe — and what happens to the portfolio if you're wrong.
● ready◆ contested topic13 min