Cycles & crises
Four nodes on what breaks. One general anatomy, and three replayable case studies. Plus 1929, 1970s, 1997, 2020, 2022 as deep-dive expansions.
Why this track existsCrises feel obvious in retrospect and incomprehensible in the moment. Track F builds the muscle to see them while they're happening.
The 4-node arc
§ Nodes · in order- F1★
Anatomy of a crisis
Same template every time: leverage build-up, complacency, trigger, panic, contagion, intervention, blame. The names change; the structure doesn't.
● ready5 min - F2★
Replay 2008
Aug 2007 → Mar 2009, month by month. Compare what was visible to a normal observer to what was happening underneath that almost nobody could see.
● ready11 min - F3
Bubble detection
You can't reliably call the top, but you can size leverage, valuation, and credit growth. Bubbles are visible as risk; the timing is the part that's unknowable.
● ready6 min - F4
Debt cycles, long and short
Short cycles run on credit (5–8y); long cycles run on debt levels (50–75y). The first is what monetary policy responds to. The second is what restructures or inflates eventually, regardless of policy.
● ready6 min