The modern frontier
Five nodes on the live arguments — what's contested right now and likely to matter for the next decade.
Why this track existsEvery track ends in a place where reasonable people disagree. Track G is where Causeway is honest about what's not settled.
The 6-node arc
§ Nodes · in order- G1★
Inequality, properly
Inequality is a shape, not a number. The Lorenz curve sketches the shape — how much of the income the bottom 50% earn, the top 10%, the top 1%. The Gini compresses it into one digit and hides which slice is doing the inequality. Two countries can share a Gini and need opposite policies.
● ready10 min - G6
Trade policy as a macro variable
Tariffs aren't a step change, they're a band. A 10% MFN is rounding; a 60% MFN is a different regime. Read with reshoring capex and the bipartisan continuity of the toolkit (Section 301, IRA, CHIPS, export controls), trade policy is a durable macro variable — not an episode.
● ready9 min - G2
Energy transition as macro shock
A cleaner energy system is also a more capital-intensive one — front-loaded investment, back-loaded payoff. That's an inflation profile, not a deflation profile, regardless of which side you're rooting for.
● ready6 min - G3
Demographics is destiny (slowly)
Aging is the slowest-moving variable in macro and the most predictable. It pushes labor up, savings up, real rates down, fiscal stress up. The whole world is getting older; the rates are different.
● ready6 min - G4
AI and labor
The honest answer: nobody knows. The dishonest answers come from anyone with a confident number. Track G holds the disagreement up to the light instead of resolving it.
● ready◆ contested topic6 min - G5
Digital money: CBDCs, stablecoins, the rest
The technical debate is small. The political debate — who can program your money, who can see your transactions, who can confiscate them — is enormous and largely under-discussed.
● ready◆ contested topic6 min