Energy transition as macro shock

A cleaner energy system is also a more capital-intensive one — front-loaded investment, back-loaded payoff. That's an inflation profile in the near term, not a deflation profile — regardless of which side you're rooting for.

The transition is good, slow, and expensive — and the macro consequence is the part most analysis underplays. Your electricity in 2040 will likely be cheaper in real terms; your bills between now and 2040 will likely be higher. Plan financially for both phases.

Steel, copper, lithium

structural bid

Skilled labor

shortage

Capex / GDP

rising

Real interest rates

structurally higher