AI and labor

The honest answer about AI and labor: nobody knows. The dishonest answers come from anyone with a confident number. Track G holds the disagreement up to the light instead of resolving it.

Decisions about career, education, and skill investment depend on beliefs about which way the AI wave runs. The right strategy under uncertainty isn't paralysis — it's hedging: build skills in both the substitutable and complementary layers, and watch where the data lands over the next five years.

Direction (substitution real)

broad agreement

Magnitude (% jobs affected)

10–80% (!)

Speed (years to transition)

5–25

Distribution (who gains)

highly contested