Crypto in a real portfolio

Two honest readings of bitcoin coexist. The tail-risk reading: no cashflow, regulation-killable, 80%-drawdown-prone — a 100x lottery ticket sized accordingly. The reserve-asset reading: fixed supply, network effects, dollar-debasement hedge — digital gold sized like 2–5% gold in a portfolio. Sizing under the two readings differs by an order of magnitude.

Because the discipline isn't which reading is right. It's sizing such that the portfolio survives if you're wrong about which one is right. A position sized for the reserve-asset reading breaks the portfolio if the tail reading turns out to be true; a position sized for the tail reading captures nothing if the reserve reading turns out to be true.

Cashflow

none

none

Scarcity

code-imposed

real & verifiable

Regulation risk

high · existential

moderate · contained

Drawdown

80%+ historically

moderating with float

Implied sizing

0–1%

2–5%